At the Indeed FutureWorks Bengaluru 2023, Indeed Senior APAC Economist Callam Pickering presented a session titled “What is Data Saying About India’s Talent Market?”. Pickering identified three key trends that could influence the future of work in India.
At the conclusion of his presentation, he had this to say about the importance of data analysis in HR and recruiting: “Data helps to inform us, it tells us where we have been, where we are, and where we are going. It is going to be critically important for recruitment going forward.”
We explore in a detailed summary of Pickering’s wide-ranging presentation, what are these three trends that could affect the future of millions of jobseekers and HR professionals in India, and possibly the rest of the world.
The Growing Importance Of India
“India is going to be critical to any discussion about the future of work. The economic choices of Indian businesses and households are going to shape the future of work, not just in India, but increasingly across the world.”
This observation was based on India’s massive young population and recent economic development. Over 415 million people moved out of poverty in India between 2006 and 2021. Pickering highlighted this as a remarkable achievement and a trajectory that could be sustained for the next 15 years.
Currently, the 5th largest economy in the world, India could become the third largest by 2030, overtaking both Japan and Germany. Although the global economy is struggling due to high inflation and increasing cost of living, India has absorbed these effects better than most countries.
Post-Pandemic Job Market Recovery In India
“India compares pretty well against most of the major labour markets that Indeed operates in. Perhaps not as strong as the Philippines or Malaysia, but certainly stronger than most of the economies throughout Europe and North America.”
Compared to pre-pandemic baselines from February 2020, there has been a 63% surge in job postings in Indeed India, indicating a very strong recovery. Pickering highlights how the Asian region in general leads the world in terms of job generation in the post-pandemic years.
According to Indeed hiring data for India, sectors like sales, retail, banking & finance, and accounting have seen an increase in share of job postings since 2020. According to Pickering, all the occupations that have grown at a faster pace all have a services theme.
Meanwhile, the sharpest decline has come from software development, with a -3.4% dip in the share of job postings since February 2020. This is what Pickering had to say about the tech sector:
“I am fairly bullish about the prospects of the tech sector. I am sure that it will bounce back, but right now, things are a little bit weaker.”
Gender Imbalance In The Workplace
“A lack of gender diversity in the workforce means that India cannot always take advantage of its very favourable demographics.”
In 2022, only 24% of Indian women were actively participating in the workforce. The average across the developed economies in the OECD is 66%. “In order for India to reach its full potential, this gap needs to close,” said Pickering.
However, there are no quick solutions, given the scale of the problem. Pickering suggests a combination of measures, including a focus on girls’ education and more women-friendly policies related to childcare and flexibility in the workplace.
The Future Of Work
“Future of work means different things to different people. When I am asked about the future of work, I like to focus on the handful of things that I think will have the biggest impact on the next five to ten years,” said Pickering.
In his opinion, there are three major factors:
Greater Urbanisation
In India, 34% of the population reside in urban areas, an increase of 4% in a decade. According to the United Nations, this could climb to 53% by 2050 as 400 million Indians move to urban areas. India is following the footsteps of China in making a transition to a more urban population.
“It is a transition that makes sense. Urban areas have more jobs, more diversity of jobs, higher paying jobs, and more opportunities for education, training and development.”
Remote Work
At their peak, remote jobs accounted for 10.5% of all job postings on Indeed India. This has now fallen to just 6.8% in 2023. However, there has been no such decline in job searches for remote work – 8% of searches on Indeed by Indian jobseekers are for remote jobs, 11 times higher than pre-pandemic levels.
“It appears as if the interest in remote work is not going away. This is clearly something that a lot of jobseekers are interested in, something that many jobseekers care about.”
Tech and AI
The rapid evolution of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) like ChatGPT and Midjourney have the potential to fundamentally change the nature of work. And the number of GenAI job postings in India is also increasing.
“At the beginning of the year (2023), I could count the number of GenAI postings in India on my fingers and toes. That is how few they were. Today, there are more than a thousand individual opportunities to work with Generative AI across India. And no doubt that number will continue to rise next year.”
The Threat Posed By GenAI To Future Job Security
According to an Indeed Hiring Lab study on the US labour market, nearly 20% of jobs including predominantly white-collar jobs like software development, legal, HR and marketing had high exposure to Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) tools like ChatGPT.
A job with high exposure is one where AI can perform at least 80% of skills at a “good” or “excellent” level. Pickering had this to say on the matter:
“Obviously, there is a certain threat element to it. But there is also potential opportunity, because high exposure is not only a threat, but it also means these programs can offer more support to your existing workflow, enable you to become more productive.”
